BEVERLEY – As East Riding Council announce their proposed boundary changes for the next local elections, the stage is set for a contest that could reshape local politics and see Reform UK take charge at County Hall.
The proposed new ward map will be in place for May 2027 and, when combined with the shift in the national political mood and the voting patterns seen in the 2025 mayoral election where Reform UK came first, the impact could be decisive.
This is not a minor adjustment to the balance of power but a shift that could upend the usually predictable politics of East Riding and redefine how the council is run.
The Local Government Boundary Commission has redrawn the structure after finding that population changes had left some councillors representing far more voters than others.
The council will still have 67 members but they will be elected from 28 wards rather than 26, with seventeen wards returning two councillors and eleven returning three. Only seven wards remain unchanged.
The shake-up means every party must fight on altered territory and are already moving to select candidates in areas that in some cases will be entirely new on the electoral map.
The elections will be held on Thursday May 6, 2027, with all 67 seats contested for a four-year term. The last full election in 2023 ended nearly three decades of Conservative control.
The Conservatives remained the largest group on 29 seats but fell short of the 34 needed for a majority. The Liberal Democrats rose to 22, Independents held nine, Labour won four and the Yorkshire Party three. Reform UK stood only a handful of candidates and did not win a seat.
Two years later the national picture looks very different. Reform has overtaken the established parties in several opinion polls and in May 2025 Luke Campbell, the former Olympic champion, won the new Hull & East Yorkshire mayoralty with 35.8 per cent of the vote.
That victory gave the party credibility across the East Riding and the beginnings of a campaign machine. Applying Campbell’s 35.8 per cent share to council wards is a crude exercise but it shows what might happen.
On the 2023 map that level of support would have put Reform ahead in many places yet still short of outright control, perhaps 25 to 35 seats, because Liberal Democrats and Independents would still have held ground in multi-member wards. Under the new 2027 map the arithmetic changes: in two-member wards a first-placed party is almost certain of one seat, and in three-member wards a share in the mid-thirties often delivers two seats rather than one.
That makes a Reform plurality more “seat efficient” and pushes the range closer to 30 to 40 councillors, with several scenarios edging over the 34-seat threshold for control.
The wards to watch are those where Conservative dominance slipped last time and where a plurality vote could now carry more weight. South Hunsley, Willerby and Kirk Ella, Tranby, Minster and Woodmansey all fall into that category. Cottingham, split between Labour and Liberal Democrats in 2023, could become competitive if Reform can recruit strong local candidates.
Rural wards around Beverley and Pocklington, where the Lib Dems made gains, also look vulnerable if the Reform vote holds. Goole, with entrenched Independents and Labour support, will be harder to crack even on a higher Reform share.
What this would mean for residents is a change in tone as much as in colour. The council runs a budget of more than £1 billion, with rising costs in social care and infrastructure.
Councillors have already signed off a 4.99 per cent council tax rise this year, leaving little room for manoeuvre. A Reform administration would be expected to take a harder line on spending: reducing agency staff and consultancy bills, re-tendering contracts, cutting duplication in back-office services, rationalising council buildings and expanding digital self-service to reduce costs.
Grants and projects without clear returns would face sharper scrutiny. The potential gain is more discipline and transparency; the risk is over-correction and visible strain in services such as adult care and highways.
The boundary review has changed more than just lines on a map. Under the old structure Reform looked capable of becoming the largest group in 2027 but probably not of taking outright control. Under the new one, a majority is within reach if Campbell’s vote can be repeated.
That said, local elections are rarely decided by national mood alone. Incumbency, organisation and personal recognition count heavily, and the Liberal Democrats and Independents are skilled ward-level campaigners. But with candidates now being lined up for newly drawn seats, the prospect of Reform control at County Hall in 2027 has moved from unlikely to entirely plausible.